Author Archives: Jeremy Hurst

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[VIC – 144] Carnitas on fleek 😏

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Business & Money

In Howard Mark’s The Most Important Thing, he talks about how the market is constantly swinging back and forth between extremes of being overpriced and underpriced. Our current place in the cycle would lean toward overpriced.

And if that is the case, then the best investments would have to be contrarian. You have to buy when others are selling and vice versa. So a good place to look is among controversial and unpopular assets.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Facebook is an unpopular asset. It’s down 35% from its high in July. And I continue to add to the position.

Don’t get me wrong there’s a ton that needs to be fixed. And regulation is probably coming, eventually.

But for me, a simple fact remains. The business is sound. The customers (the advertisers, not the users) have not flinched in the face of all the controversy. And that’s because the value that Facebook delivers to those customers is massive.

And to me, the stock is on sale. You’re not supposed to be able to buy a company like Facebook at P/E of 21. The historical PE is north of 50.

We may have further to go down, and perhaps we stay at these levels for a year or maybe even 2. But when I look 3 – 5 years out, this feels like a shot worth taking.

Human Progress

I saw this spray painted on the sidewalk while walking home the other day.

So it’s clear that everyone is not thrilled with the fact that Amazon will be coming to Long Island City with half of its second headquarters. And that makes sense. I’ve seen a ton of arguments for why this is bad for Queens and NYC.

We’ve had lackluster investment in transportation and infrastructure in NYC for years. The subway, regional rail systems, and airports are unimpressive to put it kindly. Our roads are falling apart. So it’s questionable if our current system will be able to support the massive influx of people.

The rent is “too damn high” as it is and this will only push it higher. That leads to gentrification and more income disparity.

But you can’t only look at the downside when there’s so much upside.

To start, Amazon will bring something like 20,000 jobs to NYC. That’s a lot of jobs.

Further, Amazon’s HQ2 will be a magnet for top tech talent. And that serves two benefits, given that people will relocate to the region to work at Amazon, and other companies can simultaneously recruit those workers from Amazon.

You also have to consider NYC’s high tax rates. That means Amazon will pay something like $13 billion in taxes to the city and another $14 billion to the state.

So, generally speaking, I have to say that I’m a fan of growing the regional economy and investing in NYC’s tech sector.

However, being a tech worker myself, I likely have blind spots and an underappreciation of all the issues on the other side of the aisle. So if you feel strongly in the other direction, or know someone that does, please give me the heads up so we can become pen pals. I big reason for this blog is continued hostility toward my own ignorance and naivete.

Philosophy

I was recently talking to someone about a trip they took to Vegas. They talked about how much they loved a particular pool party at one of the hotels. One thing that they remembered well was how the pool had underwater speakers. So the music never stopped, even when you went under water.

That’s pretty cool.

For one reason or another, that anecdote came to mind a few days after the fact while I was walking my dog. I was thinking about how to help friends during times of need when the thought of the underwater speakers came back to my mind.

Bear with me for a moment.

Things sound muffled underwater (though sound waves actually move faster and further distances in water). That’s because our ears have evolved to hear sounds in air.

So you might say that someone going through a difficult time is struggling underwater. They are yelling for our help, but we cannot hear them given that they are under the water. So telling your struggling friend, “you can call me at any time” probably won’t help them. Because you won’t be able to hear the calls.

You have to reach out to them, rather than waiting for them to call you. Or, to stick with the analogy, you have to reach into the water and pull them out.

My Latest Discovery

Hana absolutely crushed this carnitas recipe and I highly suggest that you guys check it out! And the leftovers were even better with 2 fried eggs on top for breakfast! #nomnom

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[VIC – 143] Not enough thank yous to give…

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When I pause today to reflect on the last year, and the last 30, there simply aren’t enough thank yous in the world. I have so much to be thankful for that it’s difficult to know where to start. But if there’s one person that takes the cake, it’s my grandmother. And rather than try to use my own words to explain just how wonderful she is, I’ll use hers. She surprised me last week with the below email out of nowhere…

On March 8, 1989 my life changed drastically. The next day I was scheduled to have a bunion removed from my right foot. About 11 pm I received a call that my daughter [my mom] had been involved in an a driver only accident and hit a telephone pole, went through her soft top convertible and landed 30 ft from the car. She was transferred to Abington Hospital in a life threatening coma. At the time this happened she was married with a 4 month old infant [me].

As a foreword, I was newly widowed in 1986. I had two daughters who had migrated to North Carolina for jobs and a son who remained in the area. My immediate family consisted of my mother, my sister and my four children. My husband had died of prostate cancer in 1986 and my mother and sister had been diagnosed with leukemia related cancers. My father passed away in 1972 from heart disease. My daughter who had the accident was married with a four month infant boy.

At the time I was employed at a major teaching hospital as a House Staff Coordinator.

It was touch and go for my daughter for about two weeks. She had sustained a severe brain injury. Finally, after she stabilized, but not awake, the neurologist attending her case, suggested I return to work because there was nothing I could do. I took his advice finally, but I was criticized by some family and friends. It proved to be good advice as I had a really paper intensive job and it took my mind off the immediate situation

She remained in a coma for about 2-1/2 months and was transferred to a rehab hospital in suburban Philadelphia where she finally woke up. She had to be retaught how to do most things. She could not walk and would not walk again on her own.

I was devastated and seriously did not know how I would handle all the issues that were before me. A sick mother and my only sister: both suffering from cancer. As my mother would say, I shouldered on (an African American saying that indicated you had a lot of problems and challenges). I would continue working and visiting my daughter at least 3 times a week after work; nearly an hour from work.

In August 1989 I traveled with my girlfriends to our annual trek to Virginia Beach for three days. While there I received a phone call that my son-in-law had died. [my mother’s husband, not my father]. He had been newly diagnosed with cancer within the last two weeks and just died. I said to myself can this be any worse and how can I possibly get through this. With this new crisis I became solely responsible for my grandson [me] and daughter [my mom]. Needless to say I was in a deep funk. Not only was I solely responsible, I was out of the child-rearing business with no relatives or friends to help me with any of this.

I finally sent Jeremy to live with paternal grandparents for 1-1/2 years knowing I would have to take him in the near future, which I eventually did. Well Jeremy thrived big-time and the little fellow walked and talked at 8 months and everyone was amazed. This was my first inclination he deserved something different from me as far as education was concerned.

After remaining in the rehab hospital for a year, my daughter was transferred to Beechwood Neurology Rehabilitation, a division of Woods School in Langhorne, PA where she currently resides. About 1-1/2 years later I brought Jeremy to live with me and I enrolled him in Abington Friends Preschool. Meanwhile my mother and sister where being treated for Leukemia; my mother at Temple Hospital where I was employed and my sister at Sloan Kettering in New York. My mother sustained her illness much better than my sister. My sister was hospitalized often and I would travel to New York City often as she was the only sibling I had. During this entire period I began to feel only the grace of God got me through this as well as friends I made at Abington Friends School. When it was time for me to enroll Jeremy in school I considered sending Jeremy to Hershey School. He was tested and accepted. Then my family had an uproar. They said I shouldn’t do this. We should handle it as a family. My oldest daughter said she would raise Jeremy. I really pondered what to do. I remembered before my interview at Hershey there was a mother and daughter with their little boy and in overhearing their conversation it didn’t seem that they were considerate of the little boy as he could overhear their conversation. Needless to say, in making this decision I wondered if I would have a vested interest with Jeremy 60 miles away. I also wondered about my parenting skills as I was not the best disciplinarian. I had four children by age 22 and also had to maintain a full time job. The counselor that accepted Jeremy was not happy with me when I declined to send him to Hershey School.

Again, I was praying for the Lord to get me through this awful time in my life. A counselor at AFS suggested I send Jeremy there full time and that was what I did. The school was less than a 1/4 mile from my house. I said to my self “how in the hell am I going to afford it”. Again with the grace of God, his mother’s social security for dependents, as well as my funds, Jeremy was able to complete his secondary education at AFS which turned out to be a wonderful decision. Jeremy was not your normal bright studious child. He participated in everything. Sports as well as the clarinet. He was completely different from my other children. He never once required assistance with his homework and was a completely dedicated student. He was always prepared and only required school supplies from me. During his early entrance in school he made friends with two boys whose mothers would help me with Jeremy on weekends when I would need to either visit my sister in New York or needed to help my mom.

My mom died in March 1997 and my sister the following year 1998 leaving me the sole survivor in my family. All of this left me completely devastated but my kids helped me through this and Jeremy was not a problem. He basically was a self-sustained youngster. In the summer I would fly him to Charlotte, NC where he would stay with my oldest daughter and my youngest daughter Lisa. He attended a bible camp and he did this until age 12 when he said he had enough. Lol. One time I picked up Jeremy from the airport as he was coming up from the ramp a woman told me “you have quite the young man”. During that time Jeremy became really friendly with his best friends parents and they basically adopted him as one of the family. The mother in this family is a wonderful person and indeed to this day he is treated as one of the family.

During Jeremy’s teenage years the self-starter in him became a camp counselor, he traveled around the country playing AAU basketball, played soccer and baseball, and studied the clarinet. When he became eligible to get his driver’s license he was there the first day when they opened and secured his license the first time. Shortly thereafter with money he saved he bought his first car with my help. Jeremy then delivered pizzas, sold Cutco knives to his friends’ parents as well as others. Thankfully for me, Jeremy was very little problem (with the exception of a few teenage escapades – a story for another day). Jeremy was a great student but very silly. He overcame some of that in High School and went on to complete four advanced placement courses. At graduation Jeremy received three substantial scholarships. It was college decision time. Full scholarships came in the mail and we traveled to several destinations and Jeremy visited some colleges without me. But it was New York University and New York City that really excited him. That was is where he went with a part time job every year. In the summer Jeremy was very fortunate to have internships at Johnson and Johnson which along with his other endeavors looked great on his resume.

It might seem like I’m bragging but Jeremy was such an extraordinary child and young person that many times I was amazed. I also want to emphasize that all my children worked part time as teenagers and I remain proud of them.

Jeremy graduated from NYU in May of 2011 on the dean’s list. Jeremy first job was AT&T in their Business Management Program in Atlanta, GA. This job came with a stipend for moving and I told Jeremy that “we” would have to look for an apartment. Jeremy informed me he had sublet an apartment. Again I said “this kid needs very little from me.” Jeremy likes dogs and I do not. Jeremy somehow convinced me to let him get a dog from the SPCA. I very reluctantly agreed. He said he would be completely responsible for the dog which he was. We then traveled to Atlanta on the worse car ride of my life 11 hours from home. That damn dog barked the ENTIRE time!

I am writing this article to show you can really go through a bad time and come out on the other side. To raise a child when you are a widow and all your other children are grown can be daunting but I survived and Jeremy survived big time. He has just always thrived. He met the love of his life at NYU and was married November 4, 2017. He turned 30 November 2018. He currently works at a start up that was just acquired and writes two blogs. God is Good!

… Yup, I know. She’s pretty awesome. I’ve done nothing to deserve a love like that. But I’ll take it 😍.

Thank you thank you thank you Gram!!

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[VIC – 142] Run His-Tor-E 😎

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Business & Money

The markets have been choppy and difficult now for a couple months. I wish I could tell you where we go from here, but I (and anyone else – despite what they might have you believe) have no idea.
That said, one of the things I look to do during choppy times is to put things into historical perspective. This article from Ben Carlson does an excellent job of that.
So roughly 60% of the time a 10% correction didn’t lead to a bear market while roughly 40% of the time it did.
I don’t love those odds, but it’s important to be aware of them nonetheless.
Plus, call me masochistic, but I rather like times like these. They test your confidence and your mental fortitude. No amount of reading about corrections and difficult times will teach you as much as the actual difficult times teach you. I find that you have to cut your teeth and develop some scar tissue if you really want to stand a chance in the markets.

Human Progress

You know how they say that history never repeats itself, but it rhymes?
Well someone drop a beat because Run His-Tor-E is about to spit that fire! (see what I did there? 😎)
Do you remember, about 15 or 20 years ago, when globalization was all the rage?
It was this unstoppable force taking the world by storm.
There would be winners and losers, but there would be more winners so the losers would just have to deal.
There would be ideological casualties along the way (nationalistic pride, cultural homogeneity, industries specific to a particular region), but there was no sense fretting the inevitable.
Finally, it would be very difficult and complex to enact and deploy, but the bankers and financiers of the world had everything under control.
And we all know where that story landed? The global financial crisis.
To be clear, it would be a vast oversimplification to try and draw a cause and effect relationship between globalization and the GFC, but I imagine there might be some connection. Global markets and interconnected credit systems means that local credit crunches become global ones.
If you put your ear close to the wall, DJ His-Tor-E seems to be revving up for a second verse.
Think about the narrative around the technological revolution that we currently find ourselves in.
Technology is an unstoppable force.
There will be winners and losers, but ultimately more winners so just deal.
Many jobs may disappear, privacy as a concept might cease to exist, truth itself may come under fire, but these are cultural artifacts that must be sacrificed on the way to a techno-utopia.
And it’s super complicated, but don’t worry because the jean wearing Patagonia vest wearing tech bros in Silicon Valley will all drop out of their ivy league schools to save us.
Those 2 stories sound eerily similar. And during times of polarization, nationalism, and populism, the last thing we need is for people to think that technology is coming for them. So it seems to me that we may need a different narrative around technology and we also need to think more seriously about what is it that we’re trying to accomplish through technological change.

Philosophy

Whenever I get sick, I usually only show symptoms for a few days at most before bouncing back. My immune system seems fairly resilient.
My wife, on the other hand, generally gets sick for at least a week or two. And often times, it seems, from the same bug that slowed me down for a matter of days.
It’s clear that our immune systems are vastly different. (it might have something to do with the fact that she regularly bathes in hand sanitizer throughout the day)
Similarly, people are very different from one another psychologically and emotionally. What pisses one person of or gives them extreme anxiety, doesn’t matter at all to the next person.
What’s fascinating to me is that the circumstances under which we live have changed drastically over the last few thousand years. Our brains meanwhile look basically the same. So the fear of imminent danger that may have arisen from severe hunger, threats from carnivorous animals, or drought, have now been displaced by fears of public speaking, feelings of inadequacy on social media, and insecurities around body image. In other words, while physical safety may not be a regular issue for many reading this blog, psychological safety is constantly under attack. And often it seem that the physiological responses to threats of the opposite type are basically the same. Those in the medical field describe this phenomena as psychosomatic.
I point all of this out because I’m reading a book where I happened across the following section:
While I agree that more profound suffering might lead to more profound thought, the element of subjectivity makes this more complicated than a simple statement of fact. The profundity measuring stick is a purely subjective one. Of course, experiencing something like the holocaust or the murder of your family in front of your eyes would rank as more severe than a fear of public speaking, but it’s impossible to really compare the experience of suffering between two different people.
Perhaps I might come to something closure to a conclusion on this topic as I read on. (the book is called How Proust Can Change Your Life btw)

My Latest Discovery

It turns out oysters are rather delicious. Over the last few weeks I’ve enjoyed a seafood paella that had oysters and also enjoyed a fried oyster appetizer.
I’m still no fan of slurping them from the shells though. But I think that has more to do with the slimy texture and appearance than the actual taste. I’m not sure why, but I have some deep seeded psychological aversion to slimy things.
Retail

[VIC – 141] Do you prefer ignorance or awareness?

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Business & Money

In recent years we’ve heard a lot about “the death of retail.” In fact, from 2006 to 2016, 5 of the big retail chains (Sears, JCPenney, Nordstrom, Kohl’s, and Macy’s) lost a combined $75B in market capitalization. Amazon went from $17B to $350B in market value during the same period. So there is some truth to the phrase.

However, Amazon may be opening 3,000 cashier-less stores by 2021.

Apple is investing heavily in their retail experience.

All of the top e-commerce brands (Bonobos, Indochino, All Birds, Warby Parker, etc) have moved or are moving into physical retail.

You can also look at stock charts for Nike, Lululemon, Home Depot, and Walmart and see a strong growth story.

So it’s not fair to make a sweeping generalization about a category and leave it at that.

What is clear is that you need to do something unique and compelling in retail if it is to be a growth driver for your business.

Human Progress

Many of you might remember reading George Orwell’s 1984 and Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World while growing up. Both novels described a dystopian version of the future the served as a critique regarding the social, political, and technological trends of the day. That said, I’m more interested in the differences between the two.

Orwell described a world that was caught up in perpetual war and ruled by an authoritarian state that employed tools of mass surveillance and propaganda to control every thought and action of a reluctantly servile populace.

Huxley’s depiction, by contrast, described a “willingly” servile population. I say “willingly” in quotes because people were actually mass-produced via in vitro fertilization and genetic modification into a predefined caste system. Further, they were constantly under the influence of Pavlovian-style conditioning and a powerful narcotic that rendered them blissfully unaware of the true state of the world.

Perhaps I can draw a modern analogy to better describe these two scenarios.

You might say that Orwell’s dystopia looks something like North Korea. Overt mass surveillance. Overt propaganda. People living under a state of fear and many risking their lives to escape. (I’ve never been to North Korea or spoken to anyone that lives there, so we’re stuck with my imagination)

And what place, you ask, might represent Huxley’s version? Dare I say the United States? Think about it for a second. You might say that Facebook and Google offer us “free” services in exchange for the intimate details of our lives and the right to control what we see and consume. You might say that advertising, media, and industry have created a culture of rabid overconsumption as a distraction from the true nature of reality. You might say that we live in a state of willing servitude where the services and products that we love are actually are captors.

So I guess the question is: which is preferable, ignorance or awareness of captivity?

Philosophy

I read a quote a few weeks ago that went as follows (not sure exactly where I saw it):

“The opposite of a simple truth is a simple lie. The opposite of a profound truth, is another profound truth.”

It has been on my mind since reading it.

If I ask you where you were at noon on Monday, November 5th, you can tell me the truth about your whereabouts. Or you could lie. And I could subsequently check what you said with other people, or perhaps look at your Uber ride history for confirmation. In other words, your location at a specific time on a specific date is a simple matter of fact.

By contrast, if I ask you about what it means to live a good life, what happens after death, or whether you believe in a higher power, these are questions of an altogether different sort. And your answers would reveal profound truths about your belief system.

But those profound truths do not have profound lies as their corollary. Instead, other people would provide different answers that they believed to be profoundly true.

So the question is, how do you reconcile such a difference in profound truths?

I’m not sure what the answer is, but I would say that you have to do so respectfully and compassionately, and that a genuine sense of curiosity serves well.

My Latest Discovery

A few friends gave me nice bottles of whiskey and scotch for my birthday (thank you 🙏). So one evening during this past week, I decided to do a tasting flight. I poured a half shot of Hibiki Japanese Harmony, a half shot of Auchentoshan 12-year old single malt scotch, and a half shot of Oban 14-year old single malt scotch, each with a couple drops of water added.

All were delicious, but slightly different.

To my unsophisticated whiskey palet, the Habiki was the smoothest and most gentle, while still maintaining a nice blend of flavors and aromas (it’s a blend of many different whiskeys).

The Oban packed a bit more bite, but also seemed to have hints of fruit and spice.

The Auchentoshan was my favorite. It was the most pungent in my opinion, but with that came more complexity and richness. There also seemed to be a hint of bourbon which we all know I love.

But, to be honest, you can’t go wrong with any of the three.

Market correction, Tequila

[VIC – 140] Day 1

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Business & Money

It might seem counterintuitive to some, but the best time to buy stocks is during a downturn. And it’s no secret that the markets have been getting hammered for about a month now. My portfolio is down 11% from its September 28th high. That never feels good.

But you have to have a plan for times like these so I thought I’d share a bit of my approach.

I have a theory about what stocks perform best after market corrections. Okay, it’s not some special theory that I came up with on my own. But one I’ve taken from a few different people and places.

The theory is that there are 2 categories of stocks that perform best immediately following corrections: 1) stocks that are hit the hardest (fall the most), and 2) and those that hold the best (barely fall at all).

So a few specific ideas:

Starting with category 1: Netflix is down 27% from a July high. Trupanion (VIC 126) is down 46% from its July high. Blackline is down 27% from its July high. Illumina is down 15% from its September high. Grubhub is down 35% after its best quarter ever, a sign of what looks like indiscriminate selling. I’ve initiated and/or added to positions for each.

For category 2: Prologis is down 5% (VIC 118). American Tower (VIC 121) has continued a steady uptrend. I initiated small positions in both last week.

I have no idea if the market will continue to slide, but there’s no way to time the bottom so you have to have courage and conviction in your beliefs and you have to press the buy button when opportunities present themselves.

Human Progress

If you’ve ever read any of the Amazon annual shareholders from  Jeff Bezos, you’ll notice that he always ends the letter by pasting in his first shareholder letter from 1997. He does that because of his famous idiom that “it is always day one.”

Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And
that is why it is always Day 1.

It’s such a powerful refrain.

And what’s interesting is that it applies far outside of business. Take this weekend for example. My wife and I were celebrating our 1-year anniversary at an incredible restaurant here in New York City called Blue Hill (I highly recommend it). The year has gone by so quickly and there have been many good times and also a few tough ones. But we remain utterly obsessed with one another and we thought that it would be a great idea to remind ourselves that it is always day 1 in our relationship. So we each read the other’s vows from our wedding day while we waited for our food. And it was such an incredible reminder of why we decided to get married in the first place. It brought back all of the happiness and elation from that night at The Metropolitan Building here in Long Island City exactly one year ago today. (and I may have cried at the restaurant just like I did when she read her vows to me that day 😭).

So whether you are building a company or a life together, I’d say it’s always good to remember that it’s day 1.

Philosophy

I’m so so lucky and my heart is filled to the brim with gratitude after this weekend!

The woman of my dreams threw the best birthday party I could ever Imagine.

Friends from many different parts of my life came together to celebrate.

So many wonderful gifts, phone calls, smiles and good vibes in general.

I’m in good health and high spirits.

Each and every one of you is so special and so special to me!

Thank you for your replies to the VIC newsletter!

Thank you for text messages and Facebook posts!

Thank you for the emojis on Instagram!

Thank you for your smiles and positivity!

Thank you for pushing me to be better and calling me out when I’m not good enough!

Thank you for the colorful balloons!

Thank you for so many gummy bears!

Thank you thank you thank you for being you! I have no idea what I would do without you! 😍🤗❤️

My Latest Discovery

Casa Dragones Blanco Tequila is absolutely delicious! It’s 100% pure blue agave and so so smooth!

Apple, Compassion, Dogs, Privacy

[VIC – 139] No one cares about privacy…

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Business & Money

When describing soccer, what would you say is the job of the goalie? I’ve tried this question out on a few friends and received answers like,

“To prevent the other team from scoring.”

“To manage the defense.”

“To lead from behind.” (goalies are often team captains)

And all of these are true statements. The problem is that all are taking a local perspective.

A different way to answer the question would be to say that “the job of the goalie is the same as the job of the other 10 players on the field: to help win the game.”

The difference in responses is the difference between a local maxima and a global maxima.

When thinking locally, the goalie is an individual with individual goals and motivations. When thinking globally, the mission of the team is paramount.

You can easily zoom out from sports and apply this concept to any other arena in life. If you think about your job, for example, are your personal goals aligned with those of the company? Is your compensation or incentive structure built to reflect such alignment?

A perfect example of this not being the case would be Wells Fargo. Individual employees were incentivized to open new checkings and savings accounts when that activity was not in the best interest of customers or the company more broadly. And when such misalignment is the case, it’s no surprise that individual incentives will often win the day.

Human Progress

Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, has been on a bit of a privacy crusade of late. He warns that “our individual information is being weaponized against us with military efficiency.”

On some level, I agree with him. There’s no doubt that the large-scale collection of consumer data has lead to unintended consequences. Whether you want to talk about misinformation campaigns, competition in industry (or the lack thereof), or cybersecurity, you don’t have to look far for ways that things can run off the rails.

However, it’s also important to put Mr. Cook’s comments in context.

First, his viewpoint is utterly self-serving. Apple’s only real competitor regarding the mobile OS is Google, whose business model is wholly dependent on harvesting as much user data as possible in order to serve targeted ads. Apple, on the other hand, is a hardware company that makes the lion share of its money from selling physical devices (mainly iPhones). Yes, they have a multi-billion dollar services business (iCloud, Apple Music, app store revenue, etc), but all of that is used to drive iPhone sales. So, Apple is heavily incentivized to push for more stringent privacy regulations in an effort to curb the competition.

Second, privacy in the information age isn’t really a thing. When everything is digital and every device is connected to the internet, privacy is essentially a marketing facade for virtue signaling.

Third, I don’t believe that people really care about privacy. If I had to make a guess about the number of people that deleted their Facebook account following the recent scandals, I’d say it’s negligible. And most, if not all of those people are still spending a ton of time on Instagram (it’s the same company people – and if you don’t think your Facebook data can be used to target you on Instagram and other FB apps, you’re mistaken). And personally, I still use the “log in with Facebook” feature on tons of other sites without thinking twice. Further, the Equifax breach might be the most egregious hack in recent memory. 145 Americans had swaths of PII stolen inclusive of full names, email addresses, social security numbers, usernames, and passwords. Yet, after diving 30% overnight, the stock gained back those losses after a year. The Target hack was similar. The stock slid 15% in the months following the breach, before gaining 50% in the 12 months after that. So, while many people say they care, the data seems to point in the opposite direction.

But hey, I guess you can’t blame Mr. Cook for taking full advantage of the present moment for Apple’s benefit. What would you expect him to do?

Philosophy

Empathy and compassion are important words that represent important concepts. And both seem to be enjoying increased usage in recent years, which is a good thing. However, it seems to me that they are often being used synonymously, which I’m not so sure is a good thing.

I’m finishing up VIC from a plane today, so I don’t have the opportunity to check Webster. Nonetheless, there does seem to be an important distinction to make.

For me, empathy means being able to truly comprehend a situation from the perspective of another. So if a friend loses their job, for example, it’s taking a moment to genuinely understand how that must feel. The feeling of low self-worth and abandonment. After putting in years of late nights and cross-country business trips, it might even feel like blatant disrespect or like their efforts when unnoticed and unappreciated. And they probably thought they were doing a good job, so it might even feel like slight to their intelligence or competence as a human being.

Compassion, to me, isn’t altogether different than the above description. I might even say that compassion encompasses empathy, but goes one step further. It’s understanding the situation from the perspective of the other, but then doing everything in one’s power to alleviate the suffering of the other person. It might involve planning a dinner with all of the person’s closest friends wherein each person writes a small note about why that person is amazing and means so much to the group. It might then involve each of said friends making an introduction to a recruiter or HR professional in their network to aid in their job search.

In other words, you might say empathy involves a feeling of emotional and psychological camaraderie, while compassion is that + some action component that seeks to alter the state of things for the better.

My Latest Discovery

If you have a dog, do him/her a favor and get them Beggin Strips!

Dutch loves these things!

Behavior modification, Mentorship, Simplicity, Uncategorized

[VIC – 138] That’s $#@*& disgusting!!

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Business & Money

I was recently speaking to someone that made a distinction between a coach and a mentor. I thought it was an apt distinction.

They defined a mentor as someone that only has one data point to work with: whatever you tell them. So you meet with this person every so often, you tell them what’s going on in your life and ask for their advice, and based on what you tell them and their own experience, they try to help you navigate the situation.

A coach, on the other hand, has the ability to gather multiple data points. Take a football coach as an example. In addition to whatever you say, they have statisticians pouring over all of the facts and figures of a player’s performance, they have other coaches specializing in specific areas (a quarterback coach for example), they watch and re-watch game tapes, and likely many more data points that I’m not aware of.

In other words, a coach has an external barometer of your reality.

So it seems, that in business and in life, people might be better served to seek out coaches as opposed to mentors.

Human Progress

If you think about it, you as an individual are solely dedicated and interested in the things that are important to you. That part is obvious, but the thing that is possibly less apparent is that everyone else feels exactly the same way. So it seems that, if you really want to influence other people, it would serve you to take a keen interest in what the other side deems important.

I try my best to keep this newsletter apolitical. And I will continue to do so. But if there’s one thing that makes me uncomfortable about the current political conversation, it’s the me me me focus. America first. I too want America to be great, but it seems to me that framing the conversation that way is unlikely to engender a desire in other nations to want to cooperate with us.

So I wonder how much time we are thinking about what other people and other nations want. And I wonder if there might be a way to help them achieve whatever those desires might be, while also furthering our own desires at the same time.

The proverbial “win-win” if you will.

I’ll leave you with a quote. The great Lao Tzu said something like,

All streams flow to the sea because it is lower than they are. Humility gives it its power. if you want to govern the people, you must place yourself below them. if you want to lead the people, you must learn how to follow them.

Philosophy

I went to a massive technology conference a few weeks ago. At one point I needed to use the restroom, so navigated my way to the closest one. Unfortunately, there was a line. As I got near to the front, I was in view of the sinks. For about 45 seconds I had a clear view of how many men washed their hands vs how many didn’t. Of 7 people I saw, 2 washed their hands. (No high horse here – I’m certain that I’ve been guilty at random points throughout life)

The conference had something like 170,000 attendees. Given it’s the technology industry, let’s assume 65% are men, or 110,500 people.

If we use the same ratio from my 45-second experience, that means 78,928 people didn’t wash their hands.

That’s $#@*& disgusting!!

And everyone knows that washing your hands is the right thing and the sanitary thing to do. Yet here we are.

It’s fascinating to me how many of the most mundane and obvious concepts aren’t strong enough to alter behavior for the majority of people.

My Latest Discovery

Morgan Housel is one of the clearest and most succinct communicators I’ve come across. He has a way of simplifying things down to their core essence.

He recently wrote this post about interest rates. And while many of the ideas here might be oversimplified, I think he does a great job of communicating a few fundamental ideas that any person can grasp.

artificial intelligence, Machine Learning, Positivity, Pricing

[VIC – 137] To charge or not to charge? That is the question.

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Business & Money

These days, I have a lot of conversations about pricing strategy in the early days of company building. And it seems like the inclination is often to give the product away for free at the beginning. The thinking is that a free product will make customers more inclined to try it (lower barrier to entry) and that it will provide a good opportunity to validate your thesis. And that makes some sense.

That said, I always prefer asking customers for money from the very start for a few key reasons.

First off, you have precisely 0 customers if your product is free. The definition of a customer is someone who buys something. So if you are not getting paid, then you don’t have customers. Similarly, businesses have revenue. Of course, every business has to get that elusive first customer, so there will be a (hopefully) short time at the beginning when you have none, but revenue should be the goal (ideally with positive free cash flows).

Second, asking for money provides good qualification. If you’re not asking for money, people may try your product/service because they like you or want to do you a favor. They’re far less likely to do that if you ask for money. You have to solve a real problem or add some tangible value. So if they say no when you ask for money, then you’re probably not doing that to a sufficient level.

Finally, I think asking for money actually increases your chances of success. When people pay for things, they then have some skin in the game and thus are more incentivized to make sure that investment has a positive outcome.

So, all things considered, I think if you’re trying to build a business, then you are better served by charging people from day 1.

Human Progress

You often hear about the “black box” problem with regards to artificial intelligence. That is, the problem whereby machine learning algorithms are making decisions, but the rationale for said decisions is inherently unexplainable.

For context, the field of machine learning has two general methods: supervised and unsupervised learning.

In supervised learning, you have a data set and you know exactly what the output should be. So you might a ton of cat pictures as the input dataset, and the output should be a “cat” or “not a cat” label. So you feed in your cat pictures, all with a pre-existing label of “cat” or “not a cat,” and that’s how you train the model on discerning whether in fact there is a cat in the picture. So after the training, when you feed in a new picture that is not labeled, the model will try to apply a label based on what it has learned from the training dataset.

With unsupervised learning, you feed in a bunch of data without much of an idea of what the output will look like. So sticking with cats, this time we have a bunch of pictures, but none of which have labels. We then feed them all into the system and it’s up to the model to cluster the pictures as it sees fit based on some relationship of variables within the pictures (number of legs, size of ears, stripes, etc).

The key difference here is that unsupervised learning has no feedback system. So the system might say “cat” or “not a cat,” but will not be able to tell you why it made the decision.

So some people are not happy about that unexplainability (might be making up that word).

What I find interesting, though, is that human beings are inherently unexplainable. People make asinine decisions all the time that are seemingly counterintuitive. We are all trapped inside our own heads and see the world subjectively. You can talk to other people, but you can never really be sure of what they’re thinking or why they do what they do.

So it doesn’t seem to me like the two situations are really all that different.

Philosophy

I recently got a marketing email from an events coordinator about attending one of their upcoming events. The funny thing is, I was already registered. You’d think they would be able to see that in their CRM or system of record.

So I typed the following response:

I’m already registered – please stop emailing me.

But before clicking send, I decided the email was in bad taste. So I typed this instead:

I’m already registered – see you there 🙂

So a few things on this:

One, I’m in sales and I know that CRM systems are often very messy. So I get it. It’s a mistake that my own business development team often makes.

Two, It’s a great example of why I love meditation. It has made me a much more mindful person that’s far more aware of my own emotions as they ebb and flow. So when annoyance bubbles up, I have a better chance of realizing it for what it is, without always acting on it.

Three, v1 of the email would have kicked off the spread of negative energy. I’m a huge fan of positive energy so hopefully the emoji in v2 made her smile and kicked off a chain reaction.

My Latest Discovery

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Moment app for iOS that tracks your screen time. Now the latest version of iOS includes screen tracking as built-in functionality. Simply click the “settings” icon from your home screen, then click “Screen Time.”

I find it both sad and slightly comical when the big tech incumbents kill off an entire company with a software update. I think It will be very difficult for Moment to build a standalone business going forward.

artificial intelligence, Google, Machine Learning, Travel

[VIC – 136] I don’t want to think like you! 🙅

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Business & Money

I’ve been thinking a lot about risk and decision making.
Here’s a question: how much money (or something else you value) would you have to be offered to play Russian roulette? Would you take on a 16% chance of blowing your brains out for $50,000? $50 million? $5 billion?
Me personally, I would never play. For the simple reason that I might blow my brains out. There’s no coming back from that. So it would be a terrible decision with far too much risk.
What I’m trying to get at is that there is no reversing course with certain decisions. For example, if you decide to take on significant venture capital dollars, there’s no going back from that (in most cases). You are making a decision to be one type of company vs another.
One decision that is perhaps somewhat less extreme has to do with portfolio allocation. How much money should be held in cash vs short-term liquid investments (stocks, treasuries) vs longer-term illiquid assets (real estate, private company stock options)?
Or you could even zoom in on just stocks and try to decide, of your positions, what percentage should be value vs growth vs income?
Based on conversations I have, I think my appetite for risk is a good bit above the average. But given where we are in the current cycle, I’ve been dialing things back a bit.

Human Progress

Have any of you noticed the new predictive typing feature in Gmail? While you’re typing, Google will try to complete your phrases and sometimes even complete sentences. It’s yet another example of how AI and machine learning are deeply woven into everything Google is and does.
But I wonder what data is being used to train these predictive typing algorithms. Are they looking at just MY email history and all the messages I have sent to build a profile of what I might be about to write? Or, are they looking at messages that everyone has sent to make the best guess at what I might type next?
It’s a nuanced difference but I think an important one.
If they’re just using my data, I’m perfectly ok with that as it will likely help me write messages more quickly and be more productive.
But in the second scenario, they would be pushing everyone toward the mean. So not helping me complete my own thoughts, but more so helping me to think like you. To me, that would be downright frightening!
Machine learning will continue to seep into every crevasse of our lives and I have no doubt that we’ll have a tough time navigating these waters.

Philosophy

I wanted to share a couple observations from the week.
It’s faster to delete an email than to unsubscribe. But unsubscribing is looking out for your future self. 8 extra seconds now so I don’t have to delete a similar message in the future.
Throwing away boxes is faster when you don’t break them down. But breaking them down saves space in the trash room, and also makes it far easier for the building staff and employees of waste disposal companies. And those guys work hard for meager pay.
Doing the right thing at any given moment is sometimes inconvenient. But it remains the right thing. Plus, you get a little dopamine hit along the way from your awareness of doing it.

My Latest Discovery

I was traveling last week when I realized that my Priority Pass (gives you access to airport lounges) card was expired. Luckily, a few google searches revealed that there’s a priority pass mobile app. So as long as you know your membership number, you can download the app, log in, and simply scan the mobile barcode to gain access. Also, it has search functionality built in so that you can find out which lounges are available in which airports. Nice!
Uncategorized

[VIC – 135] Newton’s first law

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Business & Money

Last week I bought a few shirts from an e-commerce company called Twillory. I’m writing about this for a couple reasons.
First, I wouldn’t have known that this brand existed if it weren’t for Instagram. I initially saw an ad in my feed about 8 or 9 months ago. Then a few months after that, Instagram launched their e-commerce “shop now” feature where you can click through and make a purchase without leaving Instagram. So perhaps 3 or 4 months ago, I clicked through and browsed the site, but didn’t buy anything. Then last week, because I was traveling and didn’t have time to do dry cleaning, I figure it was a good time to buy a few new dress shirts. I immediately thought of Twillory, visited the mobile site, and made the purchase. Assuming that they know what they’re doing from a tracking and measurement standpoint, my path to purchase (IG ad impression > IG mobile site > IG ad retargeting > visit to mobile site > purchase) should be pretty clear to them.
E-commerce feels to me like the next big monetization opportunity for Instagram and I think they’re just getting started. I imagine that, in addition to collecting the ad revenue, they’re probably taking a portion of the sale if you purchase from within the app. So the idea that Facebook will struggle to find new and massive revenue opportunities feels asinine to me (which is why I’ve been buying more shares).
Secondly, the end-to-end experience I described above all happened on my iPhone. Which may seem like an obvious thing to say, but I’m not sure investors really appreciate the mobile commerce opportunity (at least in the US, this is pretty obvious in a market like China).
I have a few dedicated commerce apps on my phone. In order of purchase volume starting at the highest dollar amount, those are Amazon, Chewy, and Seamless (not including transportation, music streaming, or investing).
I expect that the dollars flowing through these apps will increase at a steady clip and that, as a result, mobile advertising will increase proportionally. And Google, Facebook, and Amazon will be beneficiaries. I’m long all 3.

Human Progress

I read something once that contrasted an industrial view of education to an agrarian one. Bare with me.
In the industrial model, students all traverse the assembly line that is the modern education system. They all take the same path through the factory and are stamped and molded into consistent, reliable, predictable human beings.
In the agrarian view, you might think of future educators as gardeners that don’t so much try to control the students, but instead focus on cultivating the conditions under which students have the best chance to flourish.
Of course, it’s an abstraction without any concrete prescription on what might be wrong or how to go about making changes, but I find it to be an interesting way to think about things.

Philosophy

Remember Newton’s first law? An object at rest wants to remain at rest and an object in motion will remain in motion, unless acted on by an outside force.
While the law pertains to objects in the physical world, you might also apply it in a more psychological sense.
Take an example. It seems to me that cultivating an ability to maintain focus and attention for prolonged periods of time might the be the most important skill there is. And it seems that the unfocused and inattentive person reveals that tendency in a multitude of ways. Whereas, if you cultivate focus and attention in one area, it becomes far easier to apply those abilities in other domains.
So I try to think about Sir Isaac when making decisions about how to invest my time and attention.

My Latest Discovery

Travel is exhausting. I’m ready to go home!