Category Archives: Uber

Lyft, Uber

[VIC – 97] Uber’s valuation 💸 . Food stamps. Intellectual fitness 💪 . The Paradise Papers 📝.

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Business & Money

Here’s some interesting math:
Per the reporting, Lyft booked about $1 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2017. So annualized revenue would be roughly $4 billion.
Lyft recently raised $1 billion in funding led by Capital G, Alphabet’s (Google’s) venture arm. The round valued Lyft at $10 billion pre-money.
That would give the valuation a 2.5X multiple to annualized revenue.
Uber reportedly had gross revenues of $8.7 billion in Q2. So annualized that would be $34.8 billion.
If we apply the same 2.5X multiple that Lyft received, that would mean Uber is worth $87 billion (perhaps less if you factor in litigation risk, management turnover, and PR chaos).
Do you think Uber is worth $87 billion?

Human Progress

Peter Theil has this famous line, “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” It basically reflects that, while technological progress could yield an incredible future, many of today’s smartest people are working on the wrong things, a la creating a microblogging service like Twitter.
But there are a group of people that are definitely working on the right things. They’re working on big problems that have a real chance of changing the world. If you look at the Founders Fund (Thiel’s VC firm) portfolio, you’ll find companies working on space exploration (SpaceX), international freight logistics (Flexport), the future of education (AltSchool), and a long list of others.
Another example I recently stumbled upon is a company called Propel. The team is working on a $70 billion dollar problem that impacts 45 million Americans. Food stamps. If you know anyone that has ever applied for food stamps, or most other government support services for that matter, you know that the process sucks. You have to stand in long lines for hours to sign up, go through a lengthy process to prove eligibility, and call 1-800 numbers for simple things like checking your account balance.
Propel digitizes the entire process. You can check your balance in seconds via their mobile app, find stores that accept food stamps, and even check your spending and transaction history.
And what I find really exciting about Propel is that the market is massive. While 45 million Americans use food stamps, Propel will be in an incredible position to collect data on these users and eventually provide other financial services to these unbanked/under-banked citizens. If they can reach scale, I can’t see a reason why they then couldn’t move up market to start providing services to higher-income Americans as well.
While most fintech startups focused on this customer segment have decided to focus on developing markets, Propel has realized that the problem is just as relevant right here at home.

Philosophy

There was a time when you had to go to a library if you wanted to research a specific topic. You would first find the library card catalog which listed information about the books (author, title, subject) on little cards, all filed in alphabetical order within a small cabinet. Once you found what you were looking for, the card would direct you the appropriate shelf to locate the book.
While seemingly inefficient compared to today’s process of finding information, I think there were advantages as well. Specifically, you were forced to scan the shelves and adjacent titles in order to locate your specific book. This process sometimes resulted in finding other equally, if not more interesting titles and authors that you hadn’t initially set out for. It was an amazingly serendipitous process that could sometimes lead to unintentionally spending hours lost in Socratic dialogues or stories of conquest.
In contrast, the process of finding information today is very precise and specific. You type a query into Google, and it returns exactly what you want, usually with the first result (after they monetize your eyeballs with ads, of course). No more exploration or serendipity.
I would almost liken it to a process of destroying evolution. If you think about evolution in a biological sense, you have organisms competing for the opportunity to reproduce and thus pass on their genes to the next generation. At each step along the journey, you get these small genetic mutations that make the offspring slightly different from the parent. Maybe their coloration is slightly different or their eyes are a tiny bit bigger. And sometimes these small changes actually benefit the offspring by adding to their evolutionary fitness. It’s this process of mutation and adding “noise” to the system that allows for creatures to better respond to changes in the environment. If it weren’t for mutations, all members of a species would likely die in the event of a drought, ice age, or another catastrophe.
The precision of today’s algorithms essentially removes the opportunity for these chance mutations. You have a very limited opportunity to stumble upon that other thing that might actually be better or more interesting than what you were originally searching for. And like my evolutionary example, I think a little noise or chance variation might actually be a good thing for our intellectual fitness.

My Latest Discovery

The Vice News special on the Paradise Papers is incredible and scary at the same. While there doesn’t seem to be an obvious “smoking gun,” the links between Russia and top US political officials seem far too apparent to mere coincidence. I’d encourage everyone to check it out, though it might leave you a bit disillusioned about the state of our democracy.

Apple, Meditation, Mindfulness, Uber

[VIC – 90] Lift raising capital. Paradigm shifts in computing. No mac & cheese. Camp Calm.

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Business & Money

Apparently, Alphabet (Google) is batting around the idea of a $1 billion investment in Lyft. This is funny and ironic for a whole host of reasons, but I’ll leave those for another day. The thing I’m really thinking about is, what if Lyft just accelerated IPO plans and listed early as a means to raise capital, instead of relying on the private markets?
This would poor serious gasoline on the fire that is the burning chaos over at Uber. First off, I doubt Uber’s private valuation would hold up if the market had an opportunity to value its closest rival. This would lead to serious markdowns from the late stage investors and mutual funds, more board disputes, and more disgruntled employees. It also might further delay Uber from going public to give it more time to grow into its private valuation. Further, it might give Lyft the opportunity to control their own narrative instead of constantly living in Uber’s shadow.
Of course, this is all really just an interesting thought experiment. Once both companies are public, who went first won’t really matter. But it’s interesting to think about nonetheless.

Human Progress

We went from mainframes to PCs, PCs to the internet, and from the internet to mobile. But what comes after smartphones?
Apple would like to think it has something to do with the Apple Watch, and they may be on to something. At their latest Keynote, Apple announced that Watch 3 comes with built-in cellular capability, which is the beginning of the watch’s untethering from the iPhone.
If you remember, this is exactly what Apple did with the iPhone. When the original iPhone launched, it required that you had iTunes running on a computer to be able to use it. That’s how you got your music, backed up data, and installed software updates. Then the app store launched and you could download all software over the air, stream music, and do anything else that software developers could dream up.
Now with Watch 3 + Airpods, the same thing is happening. You can start to imagine a world where you don’t actually need to carry around a smartphone all the time. And as Siri continues to improve, coupled with powerful NLP technology, Apple could be ushering in the next major paradigm shift in computing.

Philosophy

One of the things I love about meditation is the mindfulness that cultivates outside the practice itself.
I went to grab my normal lunch at Dig Inn this past Friday. When I arrived, I saw the macaroni and cheese looking fresh and delicious. Despite my elimination of dairy lately, I thought “maybe I’ll have a cheat day and treat myself to some mac & cheese.” Then not even a second later, I thought “nah, that’s just a temporary craving and I don’t really want it that bad.” The craving had appeared then disappeared in my mind, just like that.
Then I got to the register and the cashier proceeded to ring up the person in line behind me as if I wasn’t even standing there. I got annoyed for a half second, then it was gone. I was in no particular rush.
Then, as I proceeded to the cutlery station to retrieve a pair of silverware, that same girl who had been rung up before me viciously cut me off to get her silverware first. I stepped back, watched her walk away, and just had a little laugh to myself. It’s so confusing to me how rude people can be, while being completely oblivious to it. Haha. No big deal. I just sat down, enjoyed a wonderful lunch, and subsequently had a wonderful day.
All of these cravings and emotional responses just rise and fall seamlessly when you recognize them for what they are, and realize that they need not upset your mindset.

My Latest Discovery

I’ve written here before about how much I love Raptitude, “a blog about getting better at being human.” David Cain, the blog’s author, also runs a virtual mediation retreat called Camp Calm. Registration for the next session opens up this week if you’d like to check it out. It’s a very lightweight introduction to mindfulness and meditation. You won’t regret it.

Cyber Security, Ride Sharing, Uber

[VIC – 75] Uber is dead 💀 . WannaCry 😭 ransomware. Seeking out the other perspecive. Mute videos 🔉 .

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Busines & Money

Uber is dead in the water. The news of the Google + Lyft Partnership has to be the most devastating blow imaginable. Let’s lay out the reasons.
First off, let’s quickly define a couple terms. When it comes to innovation (as per Clayton Christiansen), you have two types: disruptive and sustaining. Disruptive innovation comes with not only a massive technological improvement, but more importantly a brand new business model. The innovator has thought up an entirely new way to go to market. On the other hand, while sustaining innovation also comes with technological improvement, it fits into the existing business model. It simply makes the existing advantages more powerful.
Up until now, I believe Uber has been in the lead due to their disruptive innovation in transportation. That innovation hasn’t been the technology itself (as shown by all the copy cats in ride sharing), but instead the business model. They have applied network effects to transportation and completely flipped the idea of car ownership on its head. 🍌🍌🍌🍌!!! It’s now more economical to use a ride-sharing service in many instances than it is to own a car. With more drivers on the road, wait times for passengers decrease. With more riders, more drivers are incentivized to come on line. It’s the perfect fly wheel! To boot, the company gathers more and more data as they handle more trips, thus allowing them to better optimize the entire system.
Now when considering the technology itself, that is the autonomous vehicle (AV) technology that takes ride sharing to the next level, Uber has not been in the lead. It is no secret that Google has been working on AV tech for a decade and a half. As a result, Google has an insane lead with regards to improving and iterating on the technology. For Uber, trying to compete with Google head to head on technology seems like a losing proposition. What they should have done is partnered with Google. Uber’s network + Google’s technology would have been an unbeatable combination. And it almost happened. Google Ventures invested $258,000,000 in Uber back in 2013 which seemingly put the two in bed together.
But now Google is suing Uber over the alleged theft of Google IP. On other words, the relationship has soured. In response, Uber has partnered with Lyft and delivered what could be the fatal blow to Uber. Google’s tech now has a clear go-to-market strategy via Lyft’s network. The only way Uber can win now is to get to market first with a viable AV. I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Human Progress

A couple months back I wrote about digital security and how you can protect yourself. I left out one key recommendation: BACK EVERYTHING UP! (I actually don’t store much of anything on my hard drive these days. I have both Dropbox and Google Drive downloaded so that whenever I save a file, it is automatically stored in one of these services)
Now we find ourselves here in the midst of one of the worst ransomware attacks in history.
So what happened/is happening? Over the weekend a few hundred thousand computers were infected with “WannaCry” ransomeware.
What is ransomware? Basically, someone will accidentally run malicious code on their computer, perhaps from downloading a sketchy attachment. Once the code (called “ransomware”) runs, some or all of the files on the hard drive are encrypted. The program then demands a ransom in exchange for decrypting the files. if the user doesn’t pay by a certain date, the files are lost forever.
In the case of WannaCry, the 7-day deadline hasn’t yet passed, so it is yet to be determined if the attackers will actually follow through on the threat.
There are a couple other points here that make this attack especially 🍌🍌🍌🍌.
First, WannaCry is particularly malicious in that it doesn’t need to downloaded by multiple users within a network. If, for example, one person at your company downloads it, the attack can spread on its own to other users in the network.
Secondly, WannaCry takes advantage of an exploit called EternalBlue which seems to have originated from the NSA. Apparently the NSA is stockpiling exploits (I’d imagine so that they could use them for spying purposes if/when necessary) rather than notifying software providers so that vulnerabilities can be fixed. Looks like that one back fired!
So what can you do?
Again, back up your files! Also, don’t download sketchy attachments. If it makes you double take for even a second, don’t bother. Third, install regular software updates. I know these can be annoying and seemingly always popup at inconvenient times, but software publishers are constantly pushing updates to fix problems so things like the WannaCry attack can’t happen. (I’m updating both iPhones as we speak).

Philosophy

I was recently talking to a friend about how to keep oneself intellectually honest. Here’s the suggestion that they gave. “When you come across a view point that you disagree with, seek out 2-3 other sources that confirm that viewpoint.” It might not be practical to do this for every single thing you disagree with in life, but I think it’s a fantastic suggestion when it comes to big important things.
One example I can think of is North Korea. Pretty much everything that comes from the media about North Korea paints the country in a pretty bad light. And perhaps for good reason. But after seeing so much negative publicity about the country, I thought it couldn’t hurt to look for information that confirms the opposite perspective. One example I found was this article on Medium. And to be quite honest, the article makes a lot of sense.
And none of this is to say that your mind should necessarily be changed about any specific subject. I still sit clearly on the side of liberal democracy over soviet-style communism. But understanding a bit more information about the historical backdrop and understanding the perspective of others allows for more informed and constructive conversations.

My Latest Discovery

I recently discovered a great way to improve my interpersonal skills. It happened at the gym a couple weeks ago doing a cardio session on the bike. I couldn’t get the volume on the TV to work so I was forced to watch on mute. Instead of giving up on the TV and just listening to music, I decided to focus on the silent interview in front of me to try and pick up on the nonverbal cues of conversation. It was fascinating! The way people sit, how often they shift their weight, what they do with their hands while speaking… There was so much information to be gleaned.
So much of life involves interacting with other people. And so much of communicating with other people happens outside of what’s being said. I think I’ll adopt this practice of watching mute videos more often as practice for being more attentive to nonverbal signals.