Business & Money
I’ve been thinking a lot about risk and decision making.
Here’s a question: how much money (or something else you value) would you have to be offered to play Russian roulette? Would you take on a 16% chance of blowing your brains out for $50,000? $50 million? $5 billion?
Me personally, I would never play. For the simple reason that I might blow my brains out. There’s no coming back from that. So it would be a terrible decision with far too much risk.
What I’m trying to get at is that there is no reversing course with certain decisions. For example, if you decide to take on significant venture capital dollars, there’s no going back from that (in most cases). You are making a decision to be one type of company vs another.
One decision that is perhaps somewhat less extreme has to do with portfolio allocation. How much money should be held in cash vs short-term liquid investments (stocks, treasuries) vs longer-term illiquid assets (real estate, private company stock options)?
Or you could even zoom in on just stocks and try to decide, of your positions, what percentage should be value vs growth vs income?
Based on conversations I have, I think my appetite for risk is a good bit above the average. But given where we are in the current cycle, I’ve been dialing things back a bit.
Human Progress
Have any of you noticed the new predictive typing feature in Gmail? While you’re typing, Google will try to complete your phrases and sometimes even complete sentences. It’s yet another example of how AI and machine learning are deeply woven into everything Google is and does.
But I wonder what data is being used to train these predictive typing algorithms. Are they looking at just MY email history and all the messages I have sent to build a profile of what I might be about to write? Or, are they looking at messages that everyone has sent to make the best guess at what I might type next?
It’s a nuanced difference but I think an important one.
If they’re just using my data, I’m perfectly ok with that as it will likely help me write messages more quickly and be more productive.
But in the second scenario, they would be pushing everyone toward the mean. So not helping me complete my own thoughts, but more so helping me to think like you. To me, that would be downright frightening!
Machine learning will continue to seep into every crevasse of our lives and I have no doubt that we’ll have a tough time navigating these waters.
Philosophy
I wanted to share a couple observations from the week.
It’s faster to delete an email than to unsubscribe. But unsubscribing is looking out for your future self. 8 extra seconds now so I don’t have to delete a similar message in the future.
Throwing away boxes is faster when you don’t break them down. But breaking them down saves space in the trash room, and also makes it far easier for the building staff and employees of waste disposal companies. And those guys work hard for meager pay.
Doing the right thing at any given moment is sometimes inconvenient. But it remains the right thing. Plus, you get a little dopamine hit along the way from your awareness of doing it.
My Latest Discovery
I was traveling last week when I realized that my Priority Pass (gives you access to airport lounges) card was expired. Luckily, a few google searches revealed that there’s a priority pass mobile app. So as long as you know your membership number, you can download the app, log in, and simply scan the mobile barcode to gain access. Also, it has search functionality built in so that you can find out which lounges are available in which airports. Nice!