[VIC – 134] Different strokes…

Business & Money

Buffet founded numerous investment partnerships focused on value investing and fundamental analysis. He then moved to investing directly in businesses hitting it big with companies like American Express and Geico.
Dalio pioneered a risk parity approach serving institutional clients.
Howard Lindzon seeds financial technology startups while Fred Wilson likes marketplace businesses and network effects.
At work, my team hunts down deals with medium to large advertising agencies and advertising technology companies, while my colleague manages and grows the large advertising holding companies. We’ve both done well.
Investors, salespeople, and anyone in business have a plethora of strategies to choose from.
In simple terms, it’s about figuring out what works for you and taking tips and cues from wherever you can find them.

Human Progress

I read this post from Sarah Newton of The Delusional Trader blog over the weekend. Sarah isn’t some big shot investment banker or associate on Wall Street.
I’m still just an average Jill, but previously shut and completely unknown doors are beginning to open. My mind is continuing to expand and my personal “Wall of Worry” is coming down like it’s June 1990. For now, I’m just a girl on a Greyhound bus, but maybe next year I will be writing to you from the Acela Express.
I especially liked it because I was reading the post from the Acela Express to Cape Cod.
It reminded me of the first post from Fred Wilson on his blog AVC 15 years ago.
I read blogs a lot. And I think they are great. So I am starting a blog. I have no idea if I’ll write a lot in my blog or rarely. I hope it’s a lot, because I have a lot to say. But we’ll see about that.
We did see about that. Fred’s blog has hundreds of thousands of readers and he’s arguably one of the greatest venture capitalists of all time.
A few weeks ago I got lunch with a friend. He’s starting an e-commerce company. It will be really hard to break through the noise of all the e-commerce companies starting these days, but I love his idea and am happy to see him going for it.
What’s interesting to me is that I hear echoes of Fred’s first post in my friend’s voice and in Sarah’s writing. Just people taking chances and starting something new. Regardless of what that looks like 15 years from now, I think that’s awesome.
And the Internet makes that a possibility. Despite all of the bad things that come with it, it’s a key reason I’m long-term bullish on the Internet and think we’re still in inning one of a very long game.
So start your blog or your company. Take a class. Buy your first stock.
Whatever you do, just get started.

Philosophy

So here’s a question: would you hire someone as a personal trainer if they themselves were not in shape?
A couple weeks ago, I came across this very situation at the gym. The trainer seemed to be in worse shape than the trainee. And worse, the trainer was in jeans and an oversized polo shirt.
But then I realized I was being judgmental for no reason. The trainer was up early making a living and the trainee was a the gym at 6 am. The last thing either of them wanted or needed was my judgment or opinion.
Perhaps I wouldn’t want to be trained by that person, but perhaps it’s less intimidating for someone just starting out at the gym or someone with poor self-esteem. Or perhaps the trainer was actually just a friend helping out another friend in need of extra motivation.
Who knows what the actual scenario was, but harboring negative judgmental thoughts didn’t serve anyone.
Thank you to mindfulness for cutting those thoughts short.

My Latest Discovery

A friend mentioned the Moment app a few weeks ago, so I decided to download it and give it a shot. It tracks your screen time and also which apps you spend the most time using.
Let’s just say it was a rude awakening. I would have guessed my screen time was at around an hour per day, but it’s double that (and occasionally more).
Since downloading the app, I’ve trimmed that to closer to 1 hour and feel like I’ve discovered more time out of thin air. Further, my mind feels clearer and less cluttered. I’d highly recommend that each and every one of you download it!

[VIC – 118] Experts don’t know s**t!!

Business & Money

I continue to look for opportunities in retail. I’m convinced there must be a few diamonds in the rough that might offer considerable investment returns.

One thing in retail that is apparent and difficult to refute is the shift from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce. Assuming you accept that at face value, I’ll offer up a few observations.

There’s a new service imperative in e-commerce. Consumers want faster delivery, free shipping, and speedy no-hassle returns. This means e-commerce retailers need to make significant investments in supply chain logistics that are close to consumers. This is in stark contrast to centralized distribution models of yesteryear that pooled inventories and managed distribution across wide geographies.

This change not only affects e-commerce retailers. Traditional brick-and-mortar retailers that want to remain relevant are forced to invest in their online operations, forcing similar investments in consumption-end supply chains.

Also, consumers are increasingly located in dense urban environments. Thus, potential sites for logistics centers close to consumers are a finite resource. So, for companies that invest in logistics real estate assets in these locations should enjoy rising rents and high occupancies.

All this to say that I believe there might be a great investment opportunity in REITs that focus on consumption-end supply chain logistics assets. The best example of this that I’ve been able to find is Prologis (PLD). And I love the fact that Amazon is its largest tenant.

You can rest assured that this one has been added to the watch list!

Human Progress

In settings where innovation is important, it’s often said that it’s best to approach things from first principles. That is to say that people should approach questions or challenges from a fresh perspective, without preconceived notions or ideas about the right solution.

In thinking about what types of people are best at this sort of thinking, it would appear that children might have an obvious advantage. Due to a simple lack of experience, they have no other option but to approach most things they encounter from first principles. So they ask ‘why this’ and ‘why that’ in an attempt to gain an understanding of the world.

But as we age, this sort of questioning falls off a cliff. The more we learn, the more we’re supposed to know and the less we tend to ask.

This leads to a sort of paradox wherein expertise is inversely correlated with one’s ability to ask good questions. Experts have gone so far down the knowing path, that there’s no longer a perceived need to ask questions. Of course, that opens one up to vulnerability as you might be operating with information that is out of date or simply wrong. It’s the proverbial situation where everything looks like a nail to the hammer-wielding individual.

So it seems that outsiders to a specific problem or industry might often be those best positioned to ask good questions and approach things from first principles.

Philosophy

This past Thursday I woke up to pouring rain. When I went outside to walk the dog, the cold drops felt refreshing on my skin.

After the walk, I jumped on the treadmill at the gym for a quick 1-mile run to warm up before my workout. In our gym, many of the treadmills are lined up against floor to ceiling windows, overlooking the 7th-floor terrace and the east river in the distance. As I ran, I noticed something interesting. If I focused my forward gaze, I could see a small green shrub on a hill outside the window. However, if I didn’t focus my gaze, I would instead see my reflection staring back at me while running on the treadmill.

It was a great reminder of a simple idea. You have a choice of what you see. Or rather, you have a choice of what you perceive or where you decide to focus your attention.

The rain outside during the walk that morning reflected the same. When I looked out the window when I woke up, I thought “damn, walking Dutch in the rain sucks.” But when I got outside, I was pleasantly surprised by the feeling of cold water making contact with my skin.

There’s so much wrapped up in everyday sensory experience!

My Latest Discovery

A friend sent me this Anjunabeats set earlier this week. It’s unbelievable!

[VIC – 90] Lift raising capital. Paradigm shifts in computing. No mac & cheese. Camp Calm.

Business & Money

Apparently, Alphabet (Google) is batting around the idea of a $1 billion investment in Lyft. This is funny and ironic for a whole host of reasons, but I’ll leave those for another day. The thing I’m really thinking about is, what if Lyft just accelerated IPO plans and listed early as a means to raise capital, instead of relying on the private markets?
This would poor serious gasoline on the fire that is the burning chaos over at Uber. First off, I doubt Uber’s private valuation would hold up if the market had an opportunity to value its closest rival. This would lead to serious markdowns from the late stage investors and mutual funds, more board disputes, and more disgruntled employees. It also might further delay Uber from going public to give it more time to grow into its private valuation. Further, it might give Lyft the opportunity to control their own narrative instead of constantly living in Uber’s shadow.
Of course, this is all really just an interesting thought experiment. Once both companies are public, who went first won’t really matter. But it’s interesting to think about nonetheless.

Human Progress

We went from mainframes to PCs, PCs to the internet, and from the internet to mobile. But what comes after smartphones?
Apple would like to think it has something to do with the Apple Watch, and they may be on to something. At their latest Keynote, Apple announced that Watch 3 comes with built-in cellular capability, which is the beginning of the watch’s untethering from the iPhone.
If you remember, this is exactly what Apple did with the iPhone. When the original iPhone launched, it required that you had iTunes running on a computer to be able to use it. That’s how you got your music, backed up data, and installed software updates. Then the app store launched and you could download all software over the air, stream music, and do anything else that software developers could dream up.
Now with Watch 3 + Airpods, the same thing is happening. You can start to imagine a world where you don’t actually need to carry around a smartphone all the time. And as Siri continues to improve, coupled with powerful NLP technology, Apple could be ushering in the next major paradigm shift in computing.

Philosophy

One of the things I love about meditation is the mindfulness that cultivates outside the practice itself.
I went to grab my normal lunch at Dig Inn this past Friday. When I arrived, I saw the macaroni and cheese looking fresh and delicious. Despite my elimination of dairy lately, I thought “maybe I’ll have a cheat day and treat myself to some mac & cheese.” Then not even a second later, I thought “nah, that’s just a temporary craving and I don’t really want it that bad.” The craving had appeared then disappeared in my mind, just like that.
Then I got to the register and the cashier proceeded to ring up the person in line behind me as if I wasn’t even standing there. I got annoyed for a half second, then it was gone. I was in no particular rush.
Then, as I proceeded to the cutlery station to retrieve a pair of silverware, that same girl who had been rung up before me viciously cut me off to get her silverware first. I stepped back, watched her walk away, and just had a little laugh to myself. It’s so confusing to me how rude people can be, while being completely oblivious to it. Haha. No big deal. I just sat down, enjoyed a wonderful lunch, and subsequently had a wonderful day.
All of these cravings and emotional responses just rise and fall seamlessly when you recognize them for what they are, and realize that they need not upset your mindset.

My Latest Discovery

I’ve written here before about how much I love Raptitude, “a blog about getting better at being human.” David Cain, the blog’s author, also runs a virtual mediation retreat called Camp Calm. Registration for the next session opens up this week if you’d like to check it out. It’s a very lightweight introduction to mindfulness and meditation. You won’t regret it.