Business & Money

In Howard Mark’s The Most Important Thing, he talks about how the market is constantly swinging back and forth between extremes of being overpriced and underpriced. Our current place in the cycle would lean toward overpriced.

And if that is the case, then the best investments would have to be contrarian. You have to buy when others are selling and vice versa. So a good place to look is among controversial and unpopular assets.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Facebook is an unpopular asset. It’s down 35% from its high in July. And I continue to add to the position.

Don’t get me wrong there’s a ton that needs to be fixed. And regulation is probably coming, eventually.

But for me, a simple fact remains. The business is sound. The customers (the advertisers, not the users) have not flinched in the face of all the controversy. And that’s because the value that Facebook delivers to those customers is massive.

And to me, the stock is on sale. You’re not supposed to be able to buy a company like Facebook at P/E of 21. The historical PE is north of 50.

We may have further to go down, and perhaps we stay at these levels for a year or maybe even 2. But when I look 3 – 5 years out, this feels like a shot worth taking.

Human Progress

I saw this spray painted on the sidewalk while walking home the other day.

So it’s clear that everyone is not thrilled with the fact that Amazon will be coming to Long Island City with half of its second headquarters. And that makes sense. I’ve seen a ton of arguments for why this is bad for Queens and NYC.

We’ve had lackluster investment in transportation and infrastructure in NYC for years. The subway, regional rail systems, and airports are unimpressive to put it kindly. Our roads are falling apart. So it’s questionable if our current system will be able to support the massive influx of people.

The rent is “too damn high” as it is and this will only push it higher. That leads to gentrification and more income disparity.

But you can’t only look at the downside when there’s so much upside.

To start, Amazon will bring something like 20,000 jobs to NYC. That’s a lot of jobs.

Further, Amazon’s HQ2 will be a magnet for top tech talent. And that serves two benefits, given that people will relocate to the region to work at Amazon, and other companies can simultaneously recruit those workers from Amazon.

You also have to consider NYC’s high tax rates. That means Amazon will pay something like $13 billion in taxes to the city and another $14 billion to the state.

So, generally speaking, I have to say that I’m a fan of growing the regional economy and investing in NYC’s tech sector.

However, being a tech worker myself, I likely have blind spots and an underappreciation of all the issues on the other side of the aisle. So if you feel strongly in the other direction, or know someone that does, please give me the heads up so we can become pen pals. I big reason for this blog is continued hostility toward my own ignorance and naivete.

Philosophy

I was recently talking to someone about a trip they took to Vegas. They talked about how much they loved a particular pool party at one of the hotels. One thing that they remembered well was how the pool had underwater speakers. So the music never stopped, even when you went under water.

That’s pretty cool.

For one reason or another, that anecdote came to mind a few days after the fact while I was walking my dog. I was thinking about how to help friends during times of need when the thought of the underwater speakers came back to my mind.

Bear with me for a moment.

Things sound muffled underwater (though sound waves actually move faster and further distances in water). That’s because our ears have evolved to hear sounds in air.

So you might say that someone going through a difficult time is struggling underwater. They are yelling for our help, but we cannot hear them given that they are under the water. So telling your struggling friend, “you can call me at any time” probably won’t help them. Because you won’t be able to hear the calls.

You have to reach out to them, rather than waiting for them to call you. Or, to stick with the analogy, you have to reach into the water and pull them out.

My Latest Discovery

Hana absolutely crushed this carnitas recipe and I highly suggest that you guys check it out! And the leftovers were even better with 2 fried eggs on top for breakfast! #nomnom