[VIC – 137] To charge or not to charge? That is the question.

Business & Money

These days, I have a lot of conversations about pricing strategy in the early days of company building. And it seems like the inclination is often to give the product away for free at the beginning. The thinking is that a free product will make customers more inclined to try it (lower barrier to entry) and that it will provide a good opportunity to validate your thesis. And that makes some sense.

That said, I always prefer asking customers for money from the very start for a few key reasons.

First off, you have precisely 0 customers if your product is free. The definition of a customer is someone who buys something. So if you are not getting paid, then you don’t have customers. Similarly, businesses have revenue. Of course, every business has to get that elusive first customer, so there will be a (hopefully) short time at the beginning when you have none, but revenue should be the goal (ideally with positive free cash flows).

Second, asking for money provides good qualification. If you’re not asking for money, people may try your product/service because they like you or want to do you a favor. They’re far less likely to do that if you ask for money. You have to solve a real problem or add some tangible value. So if they say no when you ask for money, then you’re probably not doing that to a sufficient level.

Finally, I think asking for money actually increases your chances of success. When people pay for things, they then have some skin in the game and thus are more incentivized to make sure that investment has a positive outcome.

So, all things considered, I think if you’re trying to build a business, then you are better served by charging people from day 1.

Human Progress

You often hear about the “black box” problem with regards to artificial intelligence. That is, the problem whereby machine learning algorithms are making decisions, but the rationale for said decisions is inherently unexplainable.

For context, the field of machine learning has two general methods: supervised and unsupervised learning.

In supervised learning, you have a data set and you know exactly what the output should be. So you might a ton of cat pictures as the input dataset, and the output should be a “cat” or “not a cat” label. So you feed in your cat pictures, all with a pre-existing label of “cat” or “not a cat,” and that’s how you train the model on discerning whether in fact there is a cat in the picture. So after the training, when you feed in a new picture that is not labeled, the model will try to apply a label based on what it has learned from the training dataset.

With unsupervised learning, you feed in a bunch of data without much of an idea of what the output will look like. So sticking with cats, this time we have a bunch of pictures, but none of which have labels. We then feed them all into the system and it’s up to the model to cluster the pictures as it sees fit based on some relationship of variables within the pictures (number of legs, size of ears, stripes, etc).

The key difference here is that unsupervised learning has no feedback system. So the system might say “cat” or “not a cat,” but will not be able to tell you why it made the decision.

So some people are not happy about that unexplainability (might be making up that word).

What I find interesting, though, is that human beings are inherently unexplainable. People make asinine decisions all the time that are seemingly counterintuitive. We are all trapped inside our own heads and see the world subjectively. You can talk to other people, but you can never really be sure of what they’re thinking or why they do what they do.

So it doesn’t seem to me like the two situations are really all that different.

Philosophy

I recently got a marketing email from an events coordinator about attending one of their upcoming events. The funny thing is, I was already registered. You’d think they would be able to see that in their CRM or system of record.

So I typed the following response:

I’m already registered – please stop emailing me.

But before clicking send, I decided the email was in bad taste. So I typed this instead:

I’m already registered – see you there 🙂

So a few things on this:

One, I’m in sales and I know that CRM systems are often very messy. So I get it. It’s a mistake that my own business development team often makes.

Two, It’s a great example of why I love meditation. It has made me a much more mindful person that’s far more aware of my own emotions as they ebb and flow. So when annoyance bubbles up, I have a better chance of realizing it for what it is, without always acting on it.

Three, v1 of the email would have kicked off the spread of negative energy. I’m a huge fan of positive energy so hopefully the emoji in v2 made her smile and kicked off a chain reaction.

My Latest Discovery

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Moment app for iOS that tracks your screen time. Now the latest version of iOS includes screen tracking as built-in functionality. Simply click the “settings” icon from your home screen, then click “Screen Time.”

I find it both sad and slightly comical when the big tech incumbents kill off an entire company with a software update. I think It will be very difficult for Moment to build a standalone business going forward.

[VIC – 104] Pricing power. Take control. Learning to unlearn. Zuck’s 2018 challenge.

Business & Money

In business, there are basically two ways to increase revenues. You can raise prices or sell more volume.

It seems that selling more volume generally incurs an incremental cost/investment. If we’re talking about manufacturing, the machines need to stay on longer or you need to invest in better equipment. With services, you require more time and/or human capital. I guess the notable exception to this rule would be software and platforms where the idea is to drive marginal cost to 0.

On the pricing side, if you can manage it, raising prices seems to be the superior of the two options. If you can raise the price, and don’t suffer any loss in volume, revenue goes up without changing anything else. No incremental capital or cost required.

The archetypical example of this is Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of See’s Candies. When Buffett purchased the company in 1972, there were doing about 17 million pounds per year. A decade later, that total grew to 24 million pounds for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%. Nothing special. However, revenues grew from $31 million to $124 million over the same period for a CAGR of 15%! All they did, in spite of meager volume growth, was simply boost prices by 10% every year. And because See’s had built a strong brand, they didn’t suffer any loss in volume.

I’m thinking about this due to 2 contemporary examples of the same idea.

The first is Netflix. Over the last 4 years, we’ve seen pricing go from $7.99 per month to $13.99 per month for the premium tier. And we haven’t seen any negative impact on subscriber growth. Netflix has pricing power, so much so that I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see more price hikes. I won’t be canceling any time soon.

The second example is Amazon, who just last week boosted the monthly subscription price of its Prime service by 18% (the $99 annual subscription option remains unchanged). I don’t see this having any negative impact on the company, and again probably won’t be the last hike. If anyone has pricing Power, Amazon Prime definitely has it.

Human Progress

On Thursday, HuffPo announced that they’re shutting down their contributor network. I don’t even read HuffPo, but this news caught my attention nonetheless. Specifically, if you are a contributor (or were at any point), you are basically SOL.

I say that because, if you post exclusively on HuffPo, or any platform owned by a third party (Medium, LinkedIn, Forbes, etc), then you do not own your own destiny. You don’t own your content, your archives, your audience, or anything else. You are completely at the mercy of the platform. Incentives will never be aligned.

This is the primary reason that I now blog from my own domain using open source software on a shared server that I can move if I’d like to. It’s a bit more complicated than simply posting something on Medium, but the autonomy and agency is well worth the effort.

And this is part of a much larger storyline, one that centers around the battle between open and closed systems. The battle between the open source protocols from the early days of the internet and the closed centralized platforms of today’s internet giants.

The only way to chip away at that dominance is to start taking back control of ourselves.

Philosophy

I’ve written here many times about how much I value reading and continual learning. It appears, to me at least, that their benefits are self-evident.

However, the opposite is equally, if not more important. The capacity to unlearn or adapt in the face of new information is critical.

When I was in high school, my basketball coach told me that the form of my jump shot was all wrong and should be corrected. After a few weeks of practice and a few games where I couldn’t make a shot, I went back to the old form. I wasn’t willing to put in the hard work and deal with downsides of short-term frustration.

While I spend a good amount of time thinking about what subjects to go deeper on and what sources of information warrant my attention, I likely don’t spend enough time on the opposite. I plan to change that.

My Latest Discovery

Every year Mark Zuckerberg announces a personal challenge to learn something new. Here’s his challenge for 2018.

I’m not sure Facebook can be fixed because the necessary fixes would most likely run perpendicular to the core business model.
That said, Zuck has done a lot of things right and there’s a fair amount of evidence pointing to him being pretty competent, so I’m not sure I’d bet against him at this point.